To this day, there is hardly a newspaper that can claim that it has been able to avoid reporting on the Democratic primaries in ANY of its 2008 issues; the same is true for television newscasts. The longer the campaign, the more extensive the media coverage. And despite the alarming lack of attention to factual policy differences between the two candidates, by now, most Americans should have understood that policy-wise, Clinton and Obama vary about as much as the songs in an Ace of Base album (I know, it’s been a while…). So what level of contrast would you expect when attending the candidates’ rallies in a state as contested – and possibly decisive – as Indiana? Correct! Slim to none..Certainly, you would be prepared to see cheering crowds. You would also anticipate seeing Hillary pumped up and Barack full of energy, both of them waving to their fans in the cheap seats, shaking hands, kissing babies and so on. But two very different events? Gimme a break!
Hillary conducts, Barack moves
Needless to say, I was in for a surprise when I decided to hit the road to see the two presidential hopefuls speak at Indiana University’s Assembly Hall in Bloomington, a college town in So
uthern Indiana. Clinton’s event was very impressive. 5,000 Hoosiers screamed at the top of their lungs when the New York Senator entered the stage to John Mellencamp’s “This is our Country.” Determined to absorb every syllable voiced by the former First Lady, the building dropped dead quiet when Hillary grabbed the microphone. As her words boomed from every corner of the building, hundreds of people in the predominantly female audience sat with their hands folded in front of their lips, their eyes filled with hope, hope for affordable college, secure jobs and stable gas prices. Even though Indiana’s unemployment rate is below the national average, 4.5 percent compared to 5.1 (March 2008), Hoosiers have suffered from declining wages and outsourcing. Aware of her listeners’ worries and needs, Clinton worked the crowd like a conductor. Her performance was professional, flawless, quite presidential indeed.
Let’s fast-forward one week. Barack Obama is scheduled to speak at Indiana University at 8.30 P.M. As I pulled into the parking lot next to Assembly Hall, I had troubles believing my eyes. At 6
.30 P.M., one mile (!) of Obama supporters had lined up in front to the stadium. Street merchants everywhere, loudly praising their “Yes We Can” t-shirts, hordes of Obama supporters searching for volunteers and reminding everybody to vote on May 6 – no doubt, the event that was about to unfold would not resemble Clinton’s well-calculated appearance. And who could be blamed for coming out? Hearing 16,000 people simultaneously shout “Yes We Can” can be a very powerful tool. Inside, the applause went from boisterous to deafening when Barack Obama parted the curtain. About five minutes into his speech, the Illinois Senator kindly asked the crowd to settle down. Excitement was so intense that two people fainted. Luckily Barack had a bottle of water which he tossed into the sea of people. Given the event’s dimension it soon became clear that Obama was anything but untouched by the atmosphere. Multiple times he went off script, sometimes losing his focus. When comparing the audience’s demographics with Clinton’s supporters, I found that college students and Blacks were more prominent, yet not dominant. Also, it appeared to me that Obama’s audience was predominantly male.
Not so fast, Mr Obama! – Watch out, Mrs Clinton!
When driving home, I wondered what kind of insights I gained from attending the two rallies. Did the events mirror the mood among Indiana voters? If so, how could Obama evoke such enthusiasm even though polls show that Hoosiers lean towards Clinton? It dawned on me that the answer was quite simple. If my minor in Social Sciences taught me anything, then it is the realization that my personal perception of things does not necessarily reflect the big picture. Yes, Obama has a stronghold among young people, especially college students. And naturally, these show up in big numbers at on-campus events. At the voting booth though, the situation is likely to look different.
After combing through the election coverage and gaining some firsthand experience, I am now convinced that Indiana could be the turning point in the Democratic primaries. If Mr Obama takes both Indiana and North Carolina, Mrs Clinton can go fishing. There is no way she can recover from losing another supposedly white blue collar state (actually Blacks make up 12.4 percent of Indiana’s population), which she desperately needs to win the superdelegate vote.
Tags: Campaign Trail, Clinton, Democrats, Indiana, Obama, Presidential Elections, Primaries, Rally, United States
